Econometric Analysis of the Effects of the War in Ukraine and Black Sea Grain Initiative
This study examines the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War and the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) on global and Ukrainian agricultural exports. The commodities analyzed in this paper include: wheat, corn, soybeans, rice, sunflower and rapeseed. The analysis, utilizing a Difference-in-Difference regression approach, reveals that the BSGI had a significant impact on global and Ukrainian-specific trade, providing additional food security in a time of severe geopolitical uncertainty. The research underscores the BSGI's role in mitigating the war's adverse effects and suggests further study into the distributional impacts of these events on global agricultural markets.